7 April 2025

Unless you live under a rock, you've surely heard by now that Trump has slapped tariffs on most of the [free] world. While most economists predict increases in the cost of groceries, some advocate a wait-and-see approach. I'm not here to pontificate on trade policy - much more qualified people have done that job - I'm just curious about food imports and exports.

First of all, why do we import food? According to the US Economic Research Service, “U.S. consumers demand variety, quality, and convenience in the foods they consume.”  They also mention wealth, ethnic diversity, seasonal and climatic factors, and intra-industry trade (processing domestic products outside the US) as contributing to the growing level of imports.

According to the most recent data I could find, we import $189B in food, with fruits, fish & shellfish, beverages (excluding liquor), vegetables and “other edible goods” [sugar?] leading the data. That averages out to over $500 per person in the US (of course, imports are not consumed equally amongst all Americans), which seems pretty significant to me.

Avocados were on Reader's Digest list of foods that will cost more as a result of new tariffs. It turns out Americans are eating 7x as many avocados as they were 30 years ago and we are importing 90% of our supply! I know this is a popular item in plant based cuisine. It's also a concentrated source of [unsaturated] fat, putting it on my list of foods to be used as a garnish more than a main course. Ironically, it's the popularity of avocados that have made them less friendly for the planet (monoculture farming, high water use, bee pollination practices). Avocado toast remains less damaging than animal-based breakfasts, but there are better choices for the planet.

Imported beef has doubled in the last 10 years. Some of this is likely spurred by demand for responsibly raised meat, but the majority of this is driving deforestation in the southern hemisphere. If tariffs reduce demand in the US [I'm skeptical, but cost IS a major driver in food choice], that would be a win for the planet.

Predicted increases in the cost of imported olive, canola and palm oils (the cheap-ingredient-of-choice in most junk food) may reduce our recently ballooning consumption of them. That would be a win for our waistlines and the planet! Between deforestation (again) and environmental costs of transportation, the CO2 emissions alone would be worth saving.

I would be remiss if I didn't mention that what you eat is much more important than where it travels from, in terms of climate impact.

Most Americans agree that supporting domestic food is a good idea, and many environmental advocates would approve of enhancing our local food system as part of the solution to climate impacts. But are Americans willing to give up [or pay a lot more for] their cup of Joe? More importantly, will the United States' poorest citizens (13.5% of Americans are food insecure) be disproportionately impacted by tariff-induced spikes in the price of groceries?

Of course, it's not just tariffs that impact the price of groceries. Increasing prevalence of “natural” disasters like extreme heat, drought, floods and wildfires, disrupt the supply of domestic food.

That's a topic for another day, but in the meantime, check out this article on the EPA website, especially the “Did you know?" section.

You might not realize it with our global market, but tomatoes are in short supply; combine that with increased costs for steel (cans) and Mexican tariffs, and you should expect the price of things like tomato paste to go up (although, IMHO the usual price for it was ridiculously low, given all the resources and labor that went into it).

Although I'm still very conscious of the cost of my food, I've spent some time thinking about it's value: how it nourishes my body, where it comes from, how it's grown, and how many hands went into its production…from seed to store. I imagine that increasing prices would inadvertently impose a greater collective mindfulness, causing us to waste less and choose fewer “discretionary calories”???

I may be overly optimistic - I always try to look at the bright side - what do you think? I admit there are so many issues that I couldn't possibly cover comprehensively here, but I'd love to hear your opinion. I welcome your insights, especially those that may cause me to look at things differently! I hope this is just the start of a conversation…